Are We at Peak Higher Ed?

Are we at peak higher ed? My answer is no, but that answer depends on the definitions that we choose.

Does peak higher ed refer to the number of schools, or the number of students enrolled? The number of people employed in higher ed (or just faculty), or the number of credentials granted? Tenure-track faculty jobs or the impact on the lives of graduates? The total number of colleges and universities, or the total value of the knowledge created?

Bryan Alexander’s recent piece "American Higher Education Enrollment Declined. Again" would tend to support the peak-higher-ed hypothesis.

In that piece, Alexander breaks down some recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. These data show a 1.3 percent drop in enrollment between this year and last.

I don’t make too much of year-to-year changes in enrollment. As Alexander notes, annual enrollments are driven by any number of cyclical and exogenous factors. These factors range from the economy (low unemployment depresses enrollment), to changes in regulations and the competitive landscape. Here the story is the collapse of the for-profits, and the rise of nonprofit online options.

What Alexander is asking is a deeper and more interesting question. Are we in for a long-term decline in the postsecondary sector? Are we at peak higher ed?

Alexander writes, “Back in 2013 I introduced the idea of peak higher education in the United States. It was a thought experiment, and it seems to have been borne out steadily. I really didn’t want it to come true. I hate to say ‘I told you so,’ but, well, it looks like I did.”

Again, I’d say the answer to Alexander’s question depends on your framing. Here is why I’m putting forward an anti-peak-higher-ed hypothesis:

Argument No. 1: Enrollments vs. Institutions

We are probably in for a future where the number of institutions decline, while the total number of students goes up. This is a function of where population growth is centered (the South and West), where it is flat or declining (Northeast and Midwest), and how colleges are distributed. The Northeast and Midwest have lots of small institutions; the South and the West has fewer but larger schools.

I tend to think that small colleges, even small colleges in demographically challenging areas, are more resilient than we give them credit for. So I don’t expect a wholesale collapse, but definitely a steady diminishment in overall number of colleges.

Argument No. 2: Master's Degrees

Every report that I read about the future of higher education highlights the growing demand for master’s degrees. The master's is the new bachelor's. Jobs that once required an undergraduate degree now require an advanced degree. A recent federal report projected that the number of graduate students would grow by 21 percent between 2014 and 2025, to 3.5 million.

To continue reading: https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/blogs/technology-and-learning/are-we-peak-higher-ed