The Big Question for Colleges: Will There Be a Fall Semester on Campus?

Colleges across the country are trying to decide whether they can reopen campus for the fall, and how long they can put off a final decision.

Schools are mapping out different scenarios, depending on the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic in the fall. Boston University, for example, has said that if the virus is still raging, it may not return to face-to-face instruction until January 2021. Another scenario projects some students on campus in the fall, and others taking classes remotely.

“We need to do the planning so whatever comes we’re ready, so parents have a level of confidence students will be safe,” said BU President Robert Brown.

College campuses almost couldn’t be set up much worse for the coronavirus. They are built on the idea of lots of people living and learning in close quarters and gathering in large groups—all measures that work against any social distancing needed to fight the spread of the pandemic.

“Opening isn’t going to be an event, it will be a process, it will take a couple of years to find a new normal,” said Ted Mitchell, president of the American Council on Education, a higher-education advocacy group that estimates the number of students on campus will decline by 15%, leading to $23 billion in lost revenue.

The pandemic sent colleges scrambling. They urged students to return home in a rush in March, with some never even coming back from spring break and leaving belongings in their dorm rooms.

The transition to remote learning has been jarring. Schools moved hundreds of thousands of courses online in a matter of weeks. The results are uneven. Students have filed class-action suits against at least two schools for failing to reimburse them for tuition, fees, and room and board.

When and if students do arrive at school this fall, classrooms, quads and cafeterias are likely to look and feel different. States may continue to limit the size of gatherings, which would dictate maximums for how many students can be in a lecture hall or dining room. Students could sit in classrooms separated by three or four seats. Older professors, more vulnerable to the coronavirus, may teach remotely.

Whatever colleges decide has big financial consequences. Some incoming freshmen, for example, could defer enrollment for a year if a school is offering remote learning only. That results in a big tuition loss and makes it hard to gauge class sizes. Schools could also lose room and board fees if some students are remote.

A working paper by two Cornell University sociology professors shows how closely intertwined students are and how easy it would be for the virus to spread on a campus.

Using course enrollment data, they found that during a given week the average student shares a class with more than 500 other students—4% of the student body. But 87% of students are connected through two steps, and 98% are three steps removed via shared classmates. Keeping classes smaller slows the spread, they found, but only slightly.

Purdue President Mitch Daniels suggested removing door handles may be one tactic to slow the coronavirus. He created a task force and gave it three weeks to investigate the possible problems the school will face under different scenarios and come up with strategies to bring back students safely. He said in a message to the school community Tuesday that possible options include minimizing contact between those over and under age 35 and using more online courses for campus-based students.

The University of California, Berkeley, is still trying to figure out how to proceed with classes for the fall, a spokeswoman said. So far, the school has had a $200 million hit from lost revenue and additional expenses. The university’s annual operating budget is $3 billion.

Brown University President Christina Paxson says she foresees more custodians on campus to disinfect the environment and greater expectations for students to clean up after themselves. And while she sees no reason why classes wouldn’t start in September, she believes some students will opt to take classes from home.

One consideration: Rhode Island has ordered anyone who enters from out of state to self-quarantine for 14 days. Dr. Paxson said Brown doesn’t have the space for so many students to remain so isolated, should that order remain in place into the fall.

So far, the pandemic has cost the school about $22 million in lost revenue and additional costs. Dr. Paxson anticipates that will rise to between $80 million and $90 million next fall.

Beloit College in Wisconsin revamped its fall semester, breaking the term up into two seven-and-a-half-week modules, to salvage as much of the campus experience as possible. Students will take two classes during each of those periods, which would allow them to start online but still potentially make it back to campus in mid-fall if conditions allow.

“We wanted to maximize flexibility and minimize the destruction,” said Provost Eric Boynton.

He said the school is planning for both options—starting online and starting on campus—and will make a final decision by late July or early August.

Since announcing the plan in early April, Dr. Boynton said he has heard from counterparts at about 20 other schools seeking details on the shift.

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